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CBB: Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional
2010-03-26
Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are from manageable travel distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, Oh. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two. Read on for a preview of the two Friday night games, then click over to the LIVE ODDS and GAME MATCHUPS pages on Sportsbook.com for more key information.
Unusual Meeting
To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.
Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.
Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.
Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.
The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122.5 at Sportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.
Buckeyes look to avoid Orange Crush
Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17 ATS).
The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.
Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.
Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.
The StatFox Power Lines for the Midwest Regional Sweet 16 games show Michigan State by 2, Ohio State by 5
CBB: Conference Tourney Previews2010-03-10The majority of the remaining conference tournaments begin on Wednesday or Thursday, with most of the power leagues deciding their 2010 champions. In most cases, the teams that win these tournaments will probably have already been in position to get a bid to the Big Dance on Sunday. Still, the chance exists that some underdogs will steal a bid from bubble teams by winning their respective conference proceedings. Read on for a preview of some of the action, with predicitions, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com to see the latest prices on every game.
Conference USA Preview – March 10-13
It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.
UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.
Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.
Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final
Championship -11:30ET, CBS
Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13
This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.
Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).
Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Prediction: California and Washington final
Championship -6:00ET, CBS
Big 12 Preview - March 10-13
The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.
Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.
Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.
Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final
Championship -6:00ET, ESPN
MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13
Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.
The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.
The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.
Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final
Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2
Mountain West Preview - March 10-13
The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.
UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.
Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.
Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final
Championship -7:00ET, Versus
Big East Preview - March 9-13
For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.
In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.
This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.
Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final
Championship -9:00ET, ESPN
Big West Preview – March 10-13
Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.
UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.
This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.
Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final
Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2
WAC Preview – March 11-13
Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.
Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.
Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final
Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2
SEC Preview – March 11-14
This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.
The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.
This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.
Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final
Championship -1:00ET, ABC
Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14
The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.
The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.
Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final
Championship -1:00ET, CBS
ACC Preview – March 11-14
The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.
The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.
Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.
Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final
Championship -1:00ET, ESPN
Big Ten Preview – March 11-14
It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.
Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.
These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final
Championship -3:30ET, CBS
CBB: Conference Tournament Betting Tendencies2010-03-02As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Sportsbook.com will of course have all of the wagering action covered for the conference tourneys, all the way up till Selection Sunday.
Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.
Horizon League
-Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
-Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
-The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
-Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.
Ohio Valley Conference
-UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
-The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years.
-Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).
Missouri Valley Conference
-The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
-There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
-Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
-Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
Colonial Athletic Association
-The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
-DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
-FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
-UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.
Sun Belt Conference
-Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years. In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
-SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
-Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
-FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
-UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
-Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).
Southern Conference
-Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
-The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
-Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
-Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.
West Coast Conference
-The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
-FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
-Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
-Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).
Big Sky Conference
-The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
-There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
-The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
-FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).
Summit League
-This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.
Mid-American Conference
-FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
-The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
-Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
-The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
-OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.
CBB: Louisville at Syracuse (1:00 PM ET, ESPN)2010-02-12ESPN continues its fairly regular coverage of Big East basketball with a trip to the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, N.Y., for a showdown between Louisville & conference leader Syracuse. The Cardinals have been a solid team on the road many years, but have faltered this season and now find themselves on the proverbial “bubble”. The Orange are in position to start thinking about a top seed for the Big Dance. The chances of Louisville coming alive for an upset don’t look good for Sunday, but as always, the pointspread figures to be the great equalizer. Get the latest price on the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page before deciding on your wagers.
Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons. He of course, has been a huge distraction himself this week, buried amidst the controversy of the NBA’s Nets’ coaching opening.
Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.
The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in the last 12 years, so who knows, maybe an upset is possible. The StatFox Power Ratings shows Louisville will need to overcome a projected line of Syracuse by 10.
CBB: Georgia Tech goes after rare sweep of Duke2010-02-09The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (16-5, 11-4 ATS) stung Duke earlier this season 71-67 as 7.5-point home underdogs and will travel to Durham on Thursday night for the rematch. Sportsbook.com has the line for this game set at Duke -12.5, and surprisingly, over 80% of the early betting action has come in on the visitors.
With young teams come youthful mistakes and coach Paul Hewitt can teach his players and only hope they learn from him. Georgia Tech is 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in games decided by four or less points and though that sounds acceptable, both losses were winnable and two of the victories were only that close after blowing 10 or more point leads. That’s what happens you have a freshman point guard like Mfon Udofia, whose decision-making at this level of play needs experience.
Duke (17-4, 13-7 ATS) will be revenge-minded at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has been shortening his bench in recent outings, playing primarily eight players, however that places a heavy burden on guard Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils point guard has to handle the ball, score, and play 35+ minutes. That might be fine for now, however in a month; Scheyer might be dragging, which creates the urgency for Andre Dawkins to become a reliable third guard. This Duke squad has height and more physical players, accounting in part why they are 14-4 ATS at home vs. good rebounding teams that are +4 or better in rebound margin.
Sportsbook.com opened with Duke as 13.5-point favorites with total of 144.5, as they look avoid being swept for the first time by Georgia Tech in 14 years. The Blue Devils are off what was a blowout loss at Georgetown 89-77, scoring seven points in the final minute to make the score appear respectable. Duke is 14-4 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons and is 13-4 OVER at Cameron Indoor after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more.
Georgia Tech is 5-29 all-time in Durham, however 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game (8-1 UNDER in those games) this season. The Yellow Jackets have lost nine of the last 10 to the Dukies and are 3-7 ATS. The ACC action begins at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.
The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 10, indicating a slight over-pricing by oddsmakers.
