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Latest College Basketball News
NCAA Hoops: Pitt vs. Maryland betting odds and preview
2010-11-18
Sportsbook.com Pitt vs. Maryland betting lines: Pitt -7, O/U 146
For one night in the Garden, east coast basketball fans can pretend that the old Big East-ACC challenge is back when Pittsburgh takes on Maryland in a semifinal game of the 2K Classic. The Panthers (91.7 PPG in three games) are off to a sizzling start offensively, as they have been led by the starting backcourt of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker.
Each player is averaging 19.3 PPG. Despite an opening-game scare from the Rhode Island Rams, the Panthers have been generally dominant, winning its first three games by an average of 32 points. In addition to scoring, the 6-foot-4 Wanamaker is also tops on the Pitt’s stat sheet in assists (6.3 APG) and steals (2.0 SPG). Over the past two seasons, Pittsburgh ranked sixth in the nation in rebounding margin, and are picking up where they left off last year. The Panthers are outrebounding opponents by more than 21 rebounds a game so far this season.
The college basketball betting crowd at Sportsbook.com are pro Pitt, as 89 percent of the point spread bettors are backing the Panthers.
Despite those gaudy numbers on the glass, Jamie Dixon’s squad will have a major challenge on its hands in the paint against Maryland. Sophomore center Jordan Williams is off to a phenomenal start. Williams averaged 9.6 PPG and 8.6 RPG last season. So far this year, he is pulling down 13.7 RPG to go along with his 21.0 PPG. The only other ACC player to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in the past decade was Tyler Hansbrough.
While the backcourt of Adrian Bowie and Sean Mosley is still learning the ropes with one another, Gary Williams’ team has gotten a boost from freshman guard Pe’Shon Howard, who had 14 points and the game-winning basket versus Charleston in a one-point win last week. Watching the Panthers team of defenders (six players are averaging at least 5.0 RPG) battle Williams for supremacy on the glass could be the matchup that determines who will step up and take control of this game down the stretch.
This college hoops betting trend favors the favorites covering the point spread tonight.
Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. (68-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31.7 units. Rating = 2*).
PITTSBURGH is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 72.9, OPPONENT 64.7 - (Rating = 2*).
Now that you know the scoop for tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com to bet on college hoops.
CBB: Are higher seeds good or bad bet Friday night?2010-03-20In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced Sportsbook.com oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?
(1)Duke vs (16) Arkansas Pine Bluff
The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as a championship game participant. That is not exactly “man bites dog material” given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point favs at Sportsbook.com.
Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.
By now, most are familiar with the fact that Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost its first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.
(1)Syracuse vs (16) Vermont
The Orangemen are a 17-point choice and need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing their last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs an infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange are 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.
Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.
(2)Ohio State vs (15) UC-Santa Barbara
Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17.5-point favorite with total of 132.5, suggests a 71-52 final score.
UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.
(4)Maryland vs. (13) Houston
The Terps will have a gi-nourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.
Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make a first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders’ teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.
Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting an 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offenses, holding teams to 38.8 percent and they are also 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers in the second half of this season.
(5)Michigan State vs (12) New Mexico State
The Spartans are favored by 13.5 points over New Mexico State and will cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center, that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.
If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), it could have a game on its hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for an average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s. Tthe Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.
CBB: Conference Tournament Betting Tendencies2010-03-02As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Sportsbook.com will of course have all of the wagering action covered for the conference tourneys, all the way up till Selection Sunday.
Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.
Horizon League
-Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
-Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
-The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
-Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.
Ohio Valley Conference
-UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
-The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years.
-Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).
Missouri Valley Conference
-The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
-There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
-Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
-Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
Colonial Athletic Association
-The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
-DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
-FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
-UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.
Sun Belt Conference
-Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years. In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
-SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
-Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
-FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
-UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
-Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).
Southern Conference
-Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
-The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
-Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
-Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.
West Coast Conference
-The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
-FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
-Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
-Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).
Big Sky Conference
-The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
-There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
-The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
-FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).
Summit League
-This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.
Mid-American Conference
-FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
-The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
-Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
-The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
-OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.
CBB: Louisville at Syracuse (1:00 PM ET, ESPN)2010-02-12ESPN continues its fairly regular coverage of Big East basketball with a trip to the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, N.Y., for a showdown between Louisville & conference leader Syracuse. The Cardinals have been a solid team on the road many years, but have faltered this season and now find themselves on the proverbial “bubble”. The Orange are in position to start thinking about a top seed for the Big Dance. The chances of Louisville coming alive for an upset don’t look good for Sunday, but as always, the pointspread figures to be the great equalizer. Get the latest price on the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page before deciding on your wagers.
Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons. He of course, has been a huge distraction himself this week, buried amidst the controversy of the NBA’s Nets’ coaching opening.
Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.
The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in the last 12 years, so who knows, maybe an upset is possible. The StatFox Power Ratings shows Louisville will need to overcome a projected line of Syracuse by 10.
CBB: Georgia Tech goes after rare sweep of Duke2010-02-09The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (16-5, 11-4 ATS) stung Duke earlier this season 71-67 as 7.5-point home underdogs and will travel to Durham on Thursday night for the rematch. Sportsbook.com has the line for this game set at Duke -12.5, and surprisingly, over 80% of the early betting action has come in on the visitors.
With young teams come youthful mistakes and coach Paul Hewitt can teach his players and only hope they learn from him. Georgia Tech is 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in games decided by four or less points and though that sounds acceptable, both losses were winnable and two of the victories were only that close after blowing 10 or more point leads. That’s what happens you have a freshman point guard like Mfon Udofia, whose decision-making at this level of play needs experience.
Duke (17-4, 13-7 ATS) will be revenge-minded at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has been shortening his bench in recent outings, playing primarily eight players, however that places a heavy burden on guard Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils point guard has to handle the ball, score, and play 35+ minutes. That might be fine for now, however in a month; Scheyer might be dragging, which creates the urgency for Andre Dawkins to become a reliable third guard. This Duke squad has height and more physical players, accounting in part why they are 14-4 ATS at home vs. good rebounding teams that are +4 or better in rebound margin.
Sportsbook.com opened with Duke as 13.5-point favorites with total of 144.5, as they look avoid being swept for the first time by Georgia Tech in 14 years. The Blue Devils are off what was a blowout loss at Georgetown 89-77, scoring seven points in the final minute to make the score appear respectable. Duke is 14-4 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons and is 13-4 OVER at Cameron Indoor after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more.
Georgia Tech is 5-29 all-time in Durham, however 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game (8-1 UNDER in those games) this season. The Yellow Jackets have lost nine of the last 10 to the Dukies and are 3-7 ATS. The ACC action begins at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.
The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 10, indicating a slight over-pricing by oddsmakers.
CBB: Wake Forest at Duke (8:00 PM ET, FSN)2010-01-15FSN’s Sunday night coverage of ACC basketball continues with a trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., for a showdown between Wake Forest and Duke. The Demon Deacons have been a solid team for the last 13 years, but have not won in Duke during that span. The chances don’t look good for Sunday either, but as always, the pointspread figures to be the great equalizer. Get the latest price on the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page before deciding on your wagers.
The Demon Deacons (12-3, 6-6 ATS) have one major weakness – outside shooting. Against teams they can overwhelm with their physical skills, the issue still persists, however is less noticeable. Playing against better quality competition, particularly those in the ACC that know their conundrum, well that is how the losses start accumulating, especially on the road. Freshman forward Ari Stewart can score from the outside, yet he is still learning about shot selection. Still, Wake Forest can play different styles and is 13-4 ATS against offensive teams like the Blue Devils scoring 77 or more points a contest.
Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS) might be the best team in the ACC, but is far from infallible. Kyle Singler had a few off games of late and Nolan Smith will disappear at various points in games as well. As opposed to the last few seasons, the Blue Devils have room for improvement. Guard Jon Scheyer has been a rock at the point and the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, are improving rapidly providing more help up front. Duke 34-18 ATS on the home court when it attempts 63 to 69 shots and 8-4 ATS off a SU win this season.
Duke is 20-5 and 18-7 ATS vs. Wake Forest, including 11-0 SU and ATS at home since 1997. The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 16, and StatFox Steve had this to say about the game: Wake Forest has proven quite incompetent in the road underdog role. The Demon Deacons’ list of negative road trends is long and distinguished, and enough for me to believe that they are staring at another big loss in Durham this week. Take a look at this one: WAKE FOREST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 84+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. The average score was WAKE FOREST 69.0, OPPONENT 88.0 - (Rating = 3*). Duke’s average win at home when it is favored by 12.5 or more points is by 25 points. While it might be a stretch to get that high, this still should be a relatively comfortable margin.
