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In order to cash in on a fast paced sport like college hoops, you need to be as well informed as possible on every aspect of the upcoming games. Be sure to check us out daily for all of the latest trends, tips and information during the college basketball season.

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CBB: Tournament Championship Game Betting Preview
2009-04-06

This year’s NCAA title game has something for everybody, particularly for those who like to get a little action on the proceedings. Whether it be the game line, the total, the first half options, or any of the numerous prop offerings, Sportsbook.com has everything you need to satisfy your betting cravings for Monday’s final. See all the latest options on the LIVE ODDS page.

For those that believe in fate, you have to be pleased that powers greater than our understanding has Michigan State playing for championship, based on circumstances. Tom Izzo’s team was fortunate to have a situation where they could take a bus to title tilt and if they won, they could start partying immediately, with probably 45,000 or more green-clad fans.

If your personality has a more orderly process and prefers continuity, where how one thing starts should have ending that follows in same fashion, then North Carolina is a custom made club. The Tar Heels started the season No.1 and are one game away from finishing in the very same spot.

Michigan State (31-6, 20-13-1 ATS) will have revenge in their hearts having been pulverized by North Carolina in the very same building (this will be on NCAA approved floor) 98-63 as 10-point underdogs on Dec. 3. By now everyone knows Goran Suton did not play in that game and this is a much better Spartans squad which is 22-9 ATS revenging a same season loss. A Michigan State win would also mean they were as tough as the city of Detroit, beating three top seeds in a row.

North Carolina (33-4, 17-19) has had the backing of the media all season and the talent to back it up. They too have battled thru injuries, never having the services of Marcus Ginyard, their best defender, and Ty Lawson being in and out of the lineup enough to matter. When the scent of a championship was finally in the air, the Tar Heels rammed through five opponents by over 20 points per game, covering the spread each time. North Carolina is 9-1 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons and 7-1 ATS in road games after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half this season.

The folks at Sportsbook.com have North Carolina favored by 7.5-points with the total drifting downward to 152.5. That sets up for the final score to be approximately 80-72 in favor of the Tar Heels.

The number of points Michigan State allows is terribly important. This season, when Izzo’s crew surrenders 70 or more points they are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS. Granted, they defeated Connecticut in that manner, but as coach Izzo knows, North Carolina is different. “If we play good and they play good, we’re losing. That’s the way I look at it,” Izzo said. “I mean, I don’t look at that in the negative. They are the best team in the country and have earned that ranking probably over the last year and a half.”

Michigan State has to continue to receive contributions from everyone who plays, be it freshman Korie Lucious hitting three’s or Draymond Green being physical and chipping in a point a minute. The Spartans have to keeping earning second chance points by storming the boards and playing superlative perimeter defense. Raymar Morgan is the wild card, because if he scores 18-20 points, he gives the partisan crowd something to stand up and cheer about. The Spartans are tough-minded 15-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.
Bobby Knight said one of the hardest things to do is carry the weight all year of being expected to be champions and finish it to the end. North Carolina has worn that collar of burden all season, with its four losses by a grand total of 16 points. Michigan State can be a very effective transition team; however nobody goes 94 feet faster with the ball than the Tar Heels.

Ty Lawson has blinding speed and Wayne Ellington and Danny Green are forever is just the right locations to receive feeds for open shots. As mentioned previously, this Roy Williams team is not known for its defensive prowess, but you can ask Oklahoma and Villanova if they thought UNC can pull up the shorts and guard. There ability to create 6-0 and 8-0 runs test the will of opposing teams. Michigan State won’t back down, but neither will Tyler Hansbrough and when you think about, what player embodies the toughness principles of coach Izzo basketball more than Psycho-T. The Heels build momentum with offensive pressure and are 14-5 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games.

On Monday night, it will truly be one shining moment; will it be destiny ringing the bell for Michigan State or North Carolina finishing what they started?

CBB: North Carolina vs. Villanova (8:45 PM ET, CBS)
2009-04-06

Villanova is the lowest seed to make the Final Four this season and has to fight the “just happy to be here” syndrome. If you noticed, head coach Jay Wright had the biggest smile of any of the sideline generals that appeared on television over the weekend. It is generally accepted that the coach has a chance at least for a day to relish the moment of taking a team to the elite of college basketball and it is personally satisfying to do so. Bettors give his team a better chance of beating North Carolina than the oddsmakers do. See the latest breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Villanova (30-7, 19-14 ATS) was close three years ago, with another bunch of scintillating guards. In 2006, it was seniors Randy Foye and Allen Ray, along with Kyle Lowery. They were the number one seed and lost to eventual champion Florida. In fact, the Wildcats have been a terrific tournament team under Wright with 11-4 SU record, but three of their four losses have been to eventual champion.

What made this team better is stronger inside presence, led by Dante Cunningham. The senior gives them a hard-working rebounder with nose for the ball and Shane Clark is ravenous defender, who also crashes the glass. While Villanova has somewhat of a reputation for slow-down basketball, they can play all 94 feet expertly and are 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

A lot of the attention is focused on the guards and it should be. Scottie Reynolds is the main man, but hardly the whole show. The Corey Fisher-Corey Stokes guard combo give the ‘Cats two scorers and defenders and Reggie Redding can lock an opponents best scorer, while adding points himself. Villanova comes is 10-3 ATS following a ATS win, which they had over Pittsburgh and you better not neglect Dwayne Anderson who also does many of the little things that have helped this team win games.

If you noticed, North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS) had the most joy-less celebration of the four combatants that have made their way to the Motor City. The reason is simple; last year’s loss in the Final Four to Kansas left an empty void and the goal this year was to win six games in the tournament, not four.

Like every team in Detroit, the Tar Heels are peaking. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points an outing. Danny Green and Wayne Ellington have been finding the bottom of the net with exceptional regularity and Tyler Hansbrough is more dependable than a Swiss Army knife. As has been witnessed, Ty Lawson is playing not only like the ACC player of the year, but also like a first team All-American guard.

North Carolina’s offense is almost impossible to contain, scoring 90 points a game, converting on 48.3 percent of attempts and burying the three-ball 38.3 percent of the time. Though this team is more focused on offense than defense, that doesn’t mean they do not defend, ask Oklahoma who needed several baskets late just to reach 60 points. When the Heels hold opponents to 60 or less points they are 13-4 ATS in next contest.

For the second game of the day, Sportsbook.com has North Carolina as seven point favorite with a total of 158.5.

If North Carolina is hitting on all cylinders (a little Detroit talk), Villanova is only going to get run over with the Tar Heels taking record to 9-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament the last two years. UNC can match the play of the Wildcats guards and has more fire power and options to put them away. If they have a six point lead late, North Carolina can salt it away and cover, since they make 76 percent from the free throw line.

Villanova can shock the world in part because they are free of pressure. The so-called experts give Michigan State a shot to pull the upset, with nobody talking about coach Wright’s ‘Cats. Nova has to hit shots and avoid dead spots, where North Carolina can run off 10 straight in less than two minutes. They must always stay within contact. The defense has to play up on their man, especially Lawson, getting a hand in the face on every attempt and not have Cunningham get in foul trouble. Villanova has covered five of last six as tournament underdogs.

Teams like Villanova off back to back upsets are just 2-7 ATS when they make the Final Four, yet teams like the Tar Heels that are favored by seven or more points two days before the championship are 1-8 against the oddsmakers number.